Words of Wisdom

Bank failures, the debt ceiling/government shutdown, military conflicts, nuclear treaty suspension, etc. - there is no shortage of apocalyptic headlines. Taking a step back, we should perhaps consider if these dire matters will truly jeopardize our personal and financial well-being, or if they are merely what is being served today on the always catastrophic media menu?

Tis the season of gratitude. Thanksgiving is perhaps one of the most underappreciated holidays yet perhaps the most needed. You may recall I sent out a similar message back in 2020.

We have once again endured a year wrought with challenges – increased inflation, volatile financial markets, yet another divisive election, and a significant geopolitical conflict. Couple that with a media that is solely focused on negativity and catastrophism, and it is not hard to see how our thoughts, feelings and personal contentment can be adversely affected.

As I have noted before, the primary function of financial journalism seems to be terrifying us out of ever achieving our financial goals by shrieking about the market’s volatility. As the equity markets approach “official bear market territory,” defined as closing 20% below its January all-time high, this narrative is at a fevered pitch. Of course, even in the best of times, financial journalism seems to search far and wide for the dark lining on the silver cloud.

Optimism seems to be a scarce resource these days. But, I don’t think it should be. 

It may seem like a misnomer to discuss the wisdom of being ignorant. Ignorance, defined as a lack of knowledge or information, is not generally viewed as a positive attribute. But I would suggest that it is essential for us to thrive in modern society

If there is one constant with investing it is that there is always something to worry about. More specifically, there are always concerning headlines, economic challenges, and fears about the future. This is exacerbated by the financial media. Whether times are good or bad, the media seems to only portray things negatively. Despite all of this, equity markets have performed very well, and patient investors have been rewarded accordingly.

Now to segue to the real topic of this essay: Market Declines

No, I am not retiring! I already did so in September of 2018 when I transitioned my practice to Guided Path Wealth Management. Allow me to explain…

We recently passed the one year anniversary of COVID being recognized as a global pandemic. As it relates to the markets and investing, I thought it might be interesting to pause and reflect on what happened over the past year and what lessons we can learn going forward.

Persistent (def) - continuing to exist or endure over a prolonged period

You may have noticed that a new year tends to bring with it a media bombardment of “expert” forecasts of what we can expect in the forthcoming year. Nowhere is this more prevalent than in the financial media as it relates to Wall Street.

Given the journey we have endured in 2020, the next twelve months will be an especially interesting time. There is hope, but there is still much unknown. Let’s mind travel to December 2021. Next year at this time, we may look back and say, “Of course, how did I miss that”? This activity of jumping forward to look back is known as prospective hindsight.